Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 0.007809 0.008805 0.009881 0.011131 0.012543 0.014090 0.015915
2026-01-04 0.006292 0.007676 0.009295 0.011330 0.013825 0.016786 0.020576
2026-01-11 0.005476 0.007054 0.009003 0.011593 0.014951 0.019168 0.024882
2026-01-18 0.004766 0.006417 0.008548 0.011510 0.015532 0.020820 0.028331
2026-01-25 0.004249 0.005942 0.008216 0.011500 0.016141 0.022493 0.031893
2026-02-01 0.003777 0.005465 0.007809 0.011314 0.016449 0.023731 0.034913
2026-02-08 0.003462 0.005166 0.007608 0.011379 0.017087 0.025453 0.038742
2026-02-15 0.003152 0.004839 0.007328 0.011286 0.017460 0.026790 0.042080
2026-02-22 0.002968 0.004681 0.007278 0.011523 0.018339 0.028937 0.046833
2026-03-01 0.002668 0.004313 0.006870 0.011159 0.018228 0.029517 0.049112
2026-03-08 0.002438 0.004035 0.006577 0.010945 0.018329 0.030423 0.051976
2026-03-15 0.002218 0.003754 0.006253 0.010647 0.018255 0.031020 0.054345
2026-03-22 0.002141 0.003707 0.006316 0.011014 0.019352 0.033696 0.060594
2026-03-29 0.002040 0.003611 0.006287 0.011219 0.020182 0.035980 0.066361
2026-04-05 0.001957 0.003538 0.006291 0.011478 0.021126 0.038532 0.072833
2026-04-12 0.001828 0.003373 0.006117 0.011396 0.021434 0.039948 0.077286
2026-04-19 0.001722 0.003239 0.005988 0.011386 0.021869 0.041625 0.082375
2026-04-26 0.001601 0.003068 0.005778 0.011202 0.021954 0.042636 0.086230
2026-05-03 0.001523 0.002973 0.005700 0.011267 0.022523 0.044624 0.092212
2026-05-10 0.001432 0.002845 0.005550 0.011175 0.022770 0.045985 0.097016
2026-05-17 0.001386 0.002802 0.005563 0.011410 0.023697 0.048787 0.105087
2026-05-24 0.001278 0.002625 0.005296 0.011049 0.023357 0.048952 0.107496
2026-05-31 0.001194 0.002492 0.005108 0.010837 0.023314 0.049727 0.111297